Using ARIMA models to project sawlogs and sawn wood prices in the Chilean construction materials market

Abstract

One of the most remarkable factors when defining the materiality of a construction is the material cost. In this context, by having the tools to help reduce the uncertainty of wood cost will contribute to carry out projects with this material. The ARIMA models are management tools that have the potential to support projections in the short, and medium term. In the present research, the implementation of local ARIMA models were carried out in Biobío, La Araucanía, and Los Lagos regions, using as supplies the time series of radiata pine (Pinus radiata) sawn wood, and sawlogs prices, which have been collected periodically by the Forestry Institute (INFOR). The estimations on the implemented models had positive results in respect of validation data, with the exception of sawn wood prices from the four quarter of 2020, and part of 2021, which presented an unusual increase during the COVID-19 pandemic.